Wurmser: Religious Struggle Could Rip Apart Iranian Regime

May 17, 2012

In a new LIGNET interview, senior analyst David Wurmser says the drubbing that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his allies took in the May 4 parliamentary election from allies of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reflected irreconcilable religious differences. These differences, he says, pose a threat to the mullahs' rule and could ultimately "rip apart the regime."

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Wurmser: Religious Struggle Could Rip Apart Iranian Regime

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad waves after casting his ballot in Tehran in a parliamentary run-off election, May 4, 2012. (ATTA KENARE/AFP/GettyImages)

Can the NATO Alliance Survive Europe’s Debt Crisis?

May 17, 2012

Next week’s NATO summit in Chicago will focus on the alliance’s most pressing issues: ending the war in Afghanistan and maintaining NATO’s defense capabilities in an era of shrinking budgets. But it’s unlikely that a major decision will be reached on either issue.

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Peru: Leftist Rebels Re-emerge as a Significant Threat

May 17, 2012

Despite significant military and public relations success in its fight against the Sendero Luminoso (SL) rebels, the SL still has the ability to undermine Peru’s government. The resurrected group is much smaller than it was in the 80s and 90s, but is surprisingly resilient and impervious to government eradication efforts. Although the SL lacks the strength to overthrow the government, it is still able to launch operations and hurt the administration of President Ollanta Humala.

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North Korean GPS Attack Shows New Offensive Capability

May 16, 2012

Two weeks ago, South Korean officials reported that Global Positioning Systems on commercial aircraft had experienced significant technical difficulties that they suspected were caused by an electronic attack by North Korea using GPS jammers. If North Korea is in fact responsible, it suggests that North Korea under new leader Kim Jong-Un may be as belligerent as it was under his father and that its electronic warfare capabilities have grown.

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Egypt: Presidential Win by Moderate Won’t Slow Islamists

May 16, 2012

A win in the upcoming Egyptian presidential election by former Mubarak foreign minister Amr Moussa would be a stunning result that would likely anger radical Islamists. But Moussa, known for his pragmatism, would likely work closely with Islamists who dominate the parliament to implement an agenda dictated by the Muslim Brotherhood.

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Survival of Free Syrian Army in Question Due to Rebel Disarray

May 16, 2012

Although the Free Syrian Army demonstrated its ability to take on Syrian forces in a clash this week and reportedly is receiving more and better weapons, it cannot survive without a calibrated mission and integrated political leadership that is crucial to successful insurgencies. The insurrection is being severely undermined by growing political infighting among Syrian opposition groups.

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China’s Slowing Economy Will Have Global Implications

May 16, 2012

China’s central bank announced last week that it is decreasing the reserve requirements of the nation’s banks by 50 basis points, a move intended to inject more capital into the flagging economy. Although China’s economy remains strong, data just released reveals that it has begun to slow. A Chinese economic downturn will have global implications, especially by reducing Beijing's ability to continue to prop up other economies by buying foreign debt.

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