Analysis

Syria: Bloody Stalemate Likely to Persist
The Arab League decided yesterday at an emergency meeting in Cairo to ask the UN to send a peacekeeping force to Syria and to withdraw its Syria observer mission. (MARCO LONGARI/AFP/Getty Images)
February 13, 2012
| Security
| Middle East and North Africa
Summary
Following last week’s failed United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution, no evidence has emerged that suggests an end to the political and military quagmire in Syria in the coming weeks. The bloody conflict is likely to worsen, with the international community relegated to the sidelines. But a few glimmers of hope for intervention remain.

The problem with most of the proposals for intervention now under consideration is that they either lack teeth or have no real prospects for implementation. Moreover, it seems likely that the political situation in Syria will continue to deteriorate as the fragmented nature of the opposition asserts itself. There are at least eight groups that now comprise the opposition, with none of them able to agree on aims or tactics. Without a sharp shift in Syrian middle class support away from the regime in tandem with coordinated regional and international support, the opposition stands little chance of gaining ground in the near term. 

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