Analysis

Kyrgyzstan: Gold Mine Dispute Raises Investor Fears
US servicemen take part in a change of command ceremony for the 376th Air Expeditionary Wing at the US transit center on the Manas air base, located 30 kilometers outside Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan’s capital, June 13, 2012. The United States and Kyrgyzstan signed a deal in June 2009 to create a centre for the transit of non-lethal goods to Afghanistan through the Central Asian country's Manas air base. (VYACHESLAV OSELEDKO/AFP/Getty Images)
July 20, 2012
| Economics
| Russia and Central Asia
Summary
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Recent threats by Kyrgyzstan’s parliament to nationalize the Canadian-owned Kumtor gold mine are rattling the confidence of investors. If carried through, they could push Canadian gold mining firm Centerra Gold Inc. (Toronto: CG) into bankruptcy. While it is difficult to predict what will happen in an unstable, corrupt nation like Kyrgyzstan, the financial pain that the government would cause if it nationalized Kumtor makes that action less likely, as LIGNET explains.

For all its threats to nationalize Kumtor, the Kyrgyz government would be hurting itself if it does so since the country currently owns one-third of Centerra. By nationalizing the gold mine it would probably push the company into bankruptcy, which would render its large equity stake in the company practically worthless.  Centerra’s market capitalization is currently around $1.6 billion, which would put Kyrgyz’s loss at over $500 million if it followed through on its threat. The Kyrgyz government would probably lose much more since mine production would drop significantly if Centerra's expertise was suddenly lost.

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