Analysis

Which Arab States Will Survive 2012?
Libyan gunmen roam Tripoli on January 3, 2012 after a gun battle erupted on a public street with a rival militia from Misrata. (MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images)
January 11, 2012
| Security
| Middle East and North Africa
Summary
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In an exclusive interview with LIGNET.com, former CIA Director Michael Hayden looks at the Arab Spring uprisings that began a year ago and assesses which Arab governments are likely to survive 2012, and which will not. Hayden said the Assad regime that has ruled Syria for 40 years will be among the first to fall. “I think the survival of this regime is measured in months,” he said. “Not weeks. Not years. I think it’s measured in months.” Hayden says he’s been surprised that the protestors have stayed in the streets over many months, saying this reflects a great degree of popular support for the opposition. “The regime has run out of options,” he said. “It’s run out of flexibility. It’s run out of imagination.” He said behind the scenes, business people in Syria are now turning away from support for President Bashar al-Assad, unable to survive with the international isolation that has been imposed on them. But even after toppling Assad, the country is likely to face a long civil war, he said.

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