The long-running dispute between Argentina and Great Britain over the Falkland Islands took a new turn last week when Argentina’s foreign minister, Héctor Timerman, spoke at the United Nations and accused Britain of “militarizing” the South Atlantic by sending a small naval force to the region, including a nuclear submarine. Tensions between the two countries have been growing since large reserves of oil were discovered under the ocean off of the Falkland Islands. With immense petroleum wealth at stake, the dispute is not going away any time soon. Is a second Falklands War now on the horizon?

LIGNET believes that a second Falklands War is highly unlikely. Argentina is intentionally picking a fight with Britain over the islands not as a prelude to invasion, but in order to increase its chances of a winning a negotiated settlement. Argentina wants to share in the oil wealth soon to be generated by vast reserves found near the Falklands, but Britain will in all likelihood refuse to be bullied into giving up any of its rightful claim.