When Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper visits China on February 7, it will be more than a routine state visit. After the Obama administration refused to approve construction of the Keystone XL pipeline that would have transported vast reserves held in Alberta’s oil sands to American refineries on the Gulf of Mexico, Harper has turned towards China as a potential alternative to buy his nation’s oil. But is a deal between Ottawa and Beijing really imminent?

LIGNET believes the result of Harper’s negotiations with the Chinese are of immense long term importance, not only to Canada and China, but to the United States, and in the short term could influence the outcome of the approaching American presidential election.  Despite appearances, Harper’s most likely strategy will be to play the waiting game and delay committing to a deal with China until after the American election in November.  As political conditions in Washington inevitably change in early 2013, the Keystone pipeline could very well get a green light.